Author(s): VASCONCELOS, J. C. S.; ARANTES, C. S.; SPERANZA, E. A.; ANTUNES, J. F. G.; BARBOSA, L. A. F.; CANÇADO, G. M. de A.

Summary: This research investigates how to estimate sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.) yield at harvest by using an average satellite image time-series collected during the growth phase. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of various modeling approaches, including a heteroskedastic gamma regression model, Random Forest, and Artificial Neural Networks, in predicting sugarcane yield based on satellite-derived vegetation indices and environmental variables. Key covariates analyzed include sugarcane varieties, production cycles, accumulated precipitation during the growth phase, and the mean GNDVI vegetation index. The analysis was conducted in two locations over two consecutive growing seasons. The research emphasizes the integration of satellite data with advanced statistical and machine learning techniques to enhance yield prediction in agricultural systems, specifically focusing on sugarcane cultivation.

Publication year: 2025

Types of publication: Journal article

Unit: Embrapa Digital Agriculture

Keywords: Agricultura de Precisão, Agricultura digital, Aprendizado de máquina, Cana de Açúcar, Crop yield, Digital agriculture, Machine learning, Modelo estatístico, Rendimento de cultura, Saccharum Officinarum, Statistical models, Sugarcane